NAND market sales jump 70% as Nomura backs Samsung, SK Hynix

  • Counterpoint Research reported a 70% sequential increase in global NAND market revenue in the second quarter of 2026.
  • NAND prices rose 55% in the second quarter after increasing 90% in the first, with Samsung and SK Hynix holding 28% and 19% shares.
  • Nomura maintained Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, expecting AI demand and limited supply to sustain shortages through 2028.

Global NAND market revenue rose 70% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026 as prices increased 55%, following a 90% price increase in the first quarter, according to Counterpoint Research. Samsung Electronics led with a 28% share, followed by SK Hynix at 19%; Micron ranked third at 15%, while Kioxia and China's YMTC each held 14% and SanDisk had 11%. Nomura Securities maintained Buy ratings on Samsung and SK Hynix, with target prices of ₩670,000 and ₩4.7 million, respectively, and said AI demand, constrained supply and long-term contracts could extend the memory shortage through 2028. The brokerage expects global production capacity would need to double to 7.2 million wafers per month within four years and reach 11 million within six years. Five-year contracts with Big Tech customers, including 20%-30% prepayments and penalty clauses, are improving suppliers' earnings visibility, although a stronger Korean won remains a near-term risk. Nomura cut its third-quarter operating-profit forecast for SK Hynix to ₩77 trillion from ₩86 trillion and projected Samsung's operating profit at ₩107 trillion, saying higher memory average selling prices should offset currency pressure. Roundhill Investments chief investment strategist Drew Pettit separately said industry revenue could reach roughly three times current levels by 2030, while current valuations imply about 30% annualized earnings growth over five years versus Wall Street estimates of 35% or more.

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