ECB set to raise rates to 2.50% on September 10 in final hike

  • ECB is expected to raise its deposit rate to 2.50% on September 10.
  • All 65 surveyed economists forecast a quarter-point increase next week.
  • Inflation is not expected to return to the ECB’s 2% target until late 2027.

The European Central Bank (ECB), the euro zone’s monetary authority, is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, according to a Reuters poll of 65 economists conducted from August 31 to September 3. The increase would be the second and final move in the ECB’s shortest rate-hiking campaign since 2011. Euro zone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, above the ECB’s 2% target, largely because of energy costs. Most economists do not expect another increase after September, although interest-rate futures are pricing a third move. Forecasts for inflation have risen, with the 2026 estimate reaching 2.9% and inflation not expected to return to target until late 2027. Economists see the euro zone economy growing 0.8% this year and 1.2% in 2027, while renewed or intensified war in Iran could increase pressure on consumer prices and wages.

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