Powell’s undecided vote leaves September Fed rate decision at 6-5

Sep 3, 2026 11:44 (19d ago)

Polymarket showed a 60% probability of unchanged Federal Reserve rates in September before the August payrolls report, while Bianco’s expected vote tally gives a provisional 6-5 hold lead with Powell unknown.
The hold probability rose 9% in 24 hours and the 25-basis-point hike probability fell 8% to 42%; the August payrolls median forecast is 56,000 jobs, with estimates spanning a wide range.
Warsh’s speech reinforced the 2% PCE target and a data-dependent approach, while Morgan Stanley and HSBC expect unchanged rates; the federal funds rate remains 3.50%-3.75%.

The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate decision remains uncertain after Polymarket put the probability of an unchanged policy at 60% before the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report, while Jim Bianco counts six officials favoring a hold, five supporting a 25-basis-point increase and former Chair Jerome Powell as the unknown voter. The probability of a hike fell to 42% on Polymarket over 24 hours, while Morgan Stanley and HSBC retain base cases for unchanged rates. The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50%-3.75% since December 2025. Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole speech reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation target and said rates could rise if underlying inflation failed to improve. The September 16, 2026 decision, also described in the records as taking place September 15-16, will follow the August payrolls release scheduled for 20:30, with a median forecast of 56,000 new jobs.