US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.74% as rate-hike odds ease

  • The 10-year Treasury yield declined as Waller supported holding the policy rate steady.
  • 4.74% was Thursday’s yield, after the rate reached 4.81% earlier this week.
  • Markets priced a roughly 50% chance of a rate hike this month, down from 70%.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.74% on Thursday, extending a modest decline after reaching 4.81% earlier in the week, its highest level since October 2023. Support for Treasuries came from comments by Fed Governor Waller that he would support keeping the policy rate unchanged if progress toward the 2% inflation goal continued, as well as from moderating oil prices. Markets now price about a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, down from roughly 70% earlier in the week. Investors are awaiting Friday’s jobs report and next week’s inflation data.

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