A Ukrainian sea drone reportedly destroyed Nefrit, a vessel supporting oil and gas operations at Caspian Pipeline Consortium moorings near Russia’s Sochi, adding a new maritime incident to Ukraine’s campaign against Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. The CPC operates a roughly 1,500-kilometer pipeline from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field to the Black Sea, carrying about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports and more than 1% of global oil supply. Earlier attacks in the Black Sea region damaged the tankers Nissos Sifnos and Marathi, disrupted loading and affected mooring and terminal operations near Novorossiysk. Kazakhstan has condemned the strikes and urged alternative export routes, although replacement infrastructure would require years and billions of dollars. In prediction markets, the probability of Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026, fell to 5.5% from 6% a day earlier, underscoring the distinction between disruption of Russian energy logistics and territorial gains. Further maritime operations, potential Russian retaliation, CPC’s response and changes in assessments of Ukraine’s prospects in Crimea remain key developments to watch.