Russia’s oil export revenue fell to $13.8 billion in July 2026, down $2 billion from June and the lowest monthly figure in six months. The decline reflects weaker global crude prices and Ukrainian drone strikes that have repeatedly taken Russian refineries offline. June revenue had already fallen $5 billion from May to $15.8 billion, leaving Moscow with roughly $7 billion less in monthly oil revenue over two months. Combined oil and gas revenue for the first seven months of 2026 totaled RUB 4.59 trillion, down 16.8% from the same period a year earlier. The federal budget deficit reached RUB 6.45 trillion, or about 2.8% of GDP, exceeding Russia’s full-year 2025 deficit of RUB 5.63 trillion with five months remaining in 2026. Total crude and oil product exports dropped to 6.97 million barrels per day in July, while refined product exports reached historical lows. Analysts at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE Institute) identified refinery attacks as a key reason for lowering their revenue forecasts. KSE projects Russia’s 2026 oil export revenue at $182 billion, while warning that further downward revisions remain possible if strikes continue at their current pace. The institute estimates cumulative Russian revenue losses linked to the invasion of Ukraine at $205 billion through July 2026, including the effects of sanctions, the G7 price cap (a maximum permitted sale price), lost markets and infrastructure damage. Russia’s earlier shift from European sales toward Asian buyers has matured, reducing Moscow’s pricing leverage as buyers gain influence.