Trump combines sanctions and military pressure as Iran conflict drags on

  • Donald Trump combines sanctions, blockades and possible military action against Iran.
  • 102 Strait of Hormuz transits occurred last week, versus at least 130 daily before the war.
  • Iranian hardliners retain the upper hand as domestic pressures constrain both sides.

President Donald Trump is combining economic pressure with the prospect of further military escalation as Iran refuses to back down after more than six months of war. The administration launched Operation Economic Outcast last week to isolate Iran from remaining trade partners and resumed strikes in recent days, prompting Iranian retaliation and renewed concern about a broader regional war. Sanctions and intermittent bombing have not forced Iran’s leadership to yield, while rising energy prices, global economic disruption and declining public approval have complicated the administration’s position ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections. Trump said Wednesday that he did not expect the conflict to last much longer and rejected the idea that the war’s unpopularity or higher gasoline prices would affect Republicans. The administration’s economic campaign has so far targeted only one branch of an Egyptian bank in the United Arab Emirates, while experts say effective sanctions would need to reach Iran’s major trading partners, particularly China, India and Russia. Trump is reluctant to target China as he prepares to host President Xi Jinping later this month. The United States also wants to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has fallen sharply because of the risk of attack and an Iranian vetting regime. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, compared with at least 130 per day before the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the main cost for Iran would be economic but that military action remained possible. Iran faces internal divisions between moderates seeking diplomacy and hardliners favoring confrontation, with President Masoud Pezeshkian among the prominent advocates of negotiations. Analysts described the standoff as a contest of endurance shaped by domestic political pressures on both sides, while a regional diplomat said negotiations involving Iran, Oman or the U.S. must address Israel, which the diplomat identified as the initial catalyst of the war.

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