JD Vance demands Iran halt ship attacks before Hormuz talks as agreement odds fall

Sep 3, 2026 18:20 (19d ago)

JD Vance said Washington will not negotiate while Iran attacks commercial vessels, while Tehran tied talks to its conditions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
790 U.S. service members have been wounded and 18 killed since late February; prediction-market odds of a September 15 agreement are 2.7% YES.
U.S. forces struck nearly 60 Iranian targets near the Strait on Tuesday, as energy companies remained cautious about shipping through the waterway.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington will not negotiate with Tehran unless Iran stops attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while an Iranian diplomat said Tehran’s conditions and reopening the waterway were prerequisites for talks, according to ISNA. Vance offered no timeline for ending the conflict or bringing gasoline prices below pre-war levels. Prediction-market pricing for an agreement restoring normal traffic by September 15 fell to 2.7% YES, while October 1 odds stood at 6.5% YES. The confrontation continued to involve U.S.-Iran exchanges and American strikes near the strait, with 790 U.S. service members wounded and 18 killed since late February. The conflict has disrupted shipping, supported oil prices and increased political pressure on Republicans before the November 3 midterm elections.