Binance’s monthly average XRP reserves declined from about 3.1 billion in November 2025 to 2.6 billion, a 500 million net reduction that returned the average to a level last seen around February 2024. Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost shared the assessment on X on Sept. 1, while Cryptoquant summarized it in a Sept. 2 post. The analysis said the decline continued as XRP gained nearly 30% in August. XRP was near $1.35 on Sept. 1, about 63% below the cited high of $3.66, and later traded at $1.45 after rising 8% in 24 hours. Possible explanations include transfers to self-custody (holding assets in personally controlled wallets) and demand from spot XRP ETFs (funds holding XRP directly), but neither has been confirmed as the cause of the reserve change. Earlier June data showed XRP withdrawals on Binance exceeding deposits by transaction count for seven consecutive days, although that measure differs from the latest reserve series, which estimates Binance’s XRP balance. The analysis also noted that reserves tended to rise during rebounds before falling during later retracements, while the monthly average creates a lag. Spot XRP ETFs from Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares launched in late 2025 during the period when the reserve average began its sustained decline. Bitwise’s fund launched on NYSE Arca on Nov. 20 and held spot XRP. The analysis cautioned that ETF buying cannot be matched directly to Binance’s 500 million XRP reduction because funds can source tokens through multiple venues and arrangements. Institutional XRP holdings expanded as Binance’s average reserve declined during 2026; the Bitwise XRP ETF had $502.7 million in net assets and nearly 364.8 million XRP as of Aug. 27, with holdings up approximately 78 million XRP from June 30 through Aug. 27.