Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be recovering, but Goldman Sachs strategists say a growing share is moving on tankers with AIS (automated vessel-tracking systems) disabled. Gulf exports have rebounded to 15–16 million barrels per day, while visible data captures only about 10 million, leaving an apparent gap of roughly 5 million barrels daily. The report says tankers are switching off AIS on the Oman coast side of the strait to evade Iranian tracking and interdiction, a practice that has expanded significantly over the past two weeks. After incorporating dark-ship movements, Goldman estimates the net shock to Persian Gulf oil flows this week at about 7.9 million barrels per day. The estimate contrasts with statements from U.S. officials, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, President Trump and Vice President Vance, about flows exceeding or reaching 15 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is facing simultaneous pressure on its Persian Gulf and Red Sea export routes. Its observable exports fell to roughly 3 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level in at least nine years, after Yanbu shipments initially rose from about 770,000 barrels per day in January to 4.3 million by June before Houthi threats reduced them to roughly 2.25 million in August. Tanker attacks, including the August 31 strike on Bahri-operated Sidr that killed two crew members, have further constrained routing options. Goldman also estimates that global visible inventories are about 39 million barrels above raw readings after revision, implying a drawdown of roughly 2.1 million barrels per day over the past 30 days. Brent has risen above $95 a barrel, while repeated U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts of falling oil prices have not been borne out. The final August figures remain preliminary and may change as additional dark-ship and ship-to-ship transfer data emerges.