Bitcoin-gold correlation tops 0.5 as stock-market link hits one-year low

  • Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold exceeded 0.5, a six-year high, as it briefly reached $82,262 before retreating to about $79,800.
  • Bitcoin’s correlation with stock markets fell to a one-year low as U.S. national debt reached $40.13 trillion and Treasury prepared to raise long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation.
  • Fidelity identified November 2026 as a possible bear-market bottom if historical cycles persist, while Kuiper cautioned that the cycle is not precise.

Bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation with gold exceeded 0.5 through Aug. 31, its highest level in six years and only the second such reading in Bitwise data dating to April 2015, while its correlation with stock markets fell to a one-year low. Bitcoin briefly reached $82,262, a four-month high, before retreating to about $79,800, with later market data placing it between $78,500 and $80,800. Bitwise’s André Dragosch said rising macroeconomic uncertainty and currency-devaluation risks are causing investors to view Bitcoin less as a high-risk technology asset and more as a store of value, or an amplified version of gold. The shift coincided with renewed concern about U.S. fiscal sustainability as national debt reached $40.13 trillion, while Treasury planned to increase liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds to $4 billion per operation from $2 billion beginning Sept. 9. Fidelity said a bear-market bottom could arrive around November 2026 if historical patterns persist, while Galaxy’s Alex Thorn estimated a baseline correction bottom of $40,000 to $46,000. Fidelity Digital Assets’ Chris Kuiper cautioned that the cycle is not a precise timing mechanism and does not mean Bitcoin must fall later this year.

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