El-Erian warns bond sell-off may persist as traditional buyers retreat

  • Mohamed El-Erian said government debt issuance exceeds demand from traditional bond buyers.
  • $40 trillion was surpassed by U.S. national debt as 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.24%.
  • El-Erian identified the U.K., Japan and France as vulnerable to sovereign debt problems.

Mohamed El-Erian said the global government-bond sell-off may persist because debt issuance by governments and companies exceeds demand from traditionally reliable buyers, rather than primarily reflecting inflation or concerns about Federal Reserve credibility. He cited the U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion, limited appetite for immediate fiscal consolidation, reduced Chinese willingness to hold Treasuries, domestic pressures in Japan and Gulf countries, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund reviewing U.S. bond allocations. El-Erian identified the U.K., Japan and France as vulnerable to sovereign debt problems, noting that Italian debt was trading at lower yields than French debt. At the latest check, 30-year, 10-year and two-year Treasury yields stood at 5.24%, 4.76% and 4.35%, respectively. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF was down 6.59% year-to-date, while major U.S. stock indexes had posted double-digit gains.

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