India’s weather office forecasts below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for September after a rainfall deficit in August, as El Niño (periodic Pacific warming that alters global weather patterns) strengthens. The erratic monsoon has delivered substantially below-average rainfall across many subdivisions, while prolonged dry spells followed by intense downpours have stressed crops even where seasonal totals appear normal. A weak September could make this India’s weakest monsoon in nearly two decades. Summer crops including cotton, soybean, corn and rice were planted late after June rainfall came in 35% below normal and are now reaching moisture-sensitive stages such as pod formation and grain filling. September soil moisture will also influence the planting and early growth of winter crops, including wheat, rapeseed, corn and chickpeas. Poor rainfall could reduce sugar cane, soybean, peanut, rapeseed, pulse and cotton production, potentially increasing imports of sugar, vegetable oils and pulses while prompting limited duty-free cotton imports. India has already allowed duty-free imports of 1 million tons of raw sugar this year, while large rice stocks give New Delhi room to maintain rice exports. The monsoon is also a risk to inflation because food accounts for more than a third of the consumer-price basket. Retail inflation reached 4.45% in July and food inflation 5.52%, raising the prospect of tougher choices for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s central bank, if weaker growth coincides with higher food and commodity prices.