Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve (Fed, the U.S. central bank) to keep its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range through the remainder of 2026, including its September meeting and potentially October, despite some officials leaving open the possibility of a year-end hike. The outlook depends on inflation continuing to cool, while investors await US CPI and employment data and comments from officials including Chairman Jerome Powell. Market pricing has assigned lower odds to rate increases at the September and October 2026 meetings, offering temporary relief to crypto and broader financial markets, although stronger economic data could revive hike expectations.