Polymarket, a prediction market for event outcomes, showed the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September at 60% before the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report, up 9% over 24 hours. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase fell to 42%, down 8% over the same period. The report is scheduled for 20:30, with the median forecast calling for 56,000 new jobs, although estimates span a very wide range. The shift comes after July nonfarm payrolls turned negative and ADP delivered a major surprise this week, raising the prospect of heightened market volatility around the release.