A monthlong lull in fighting between Iran and the United States ended with renewed exchanges of fire, including U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and Iranian attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. The latest exchanges remained more limited than the earlier campaign and focused mainly on military rather than civilian or energy infrastructure, suggesting both sides want to avoid full-scale war while continuing to escalate. Iran has sought to use the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington and global markets, but its leverage appears to be weakening as U.S. support and alternative routes keep Gulf oil moving. About 5 million barrels of crude a day, almost none Iranian, crossed Hormuz during the latest four-week period, while another 2.5 million barrels a day moved through Gulf of Oman ports, including Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The combined volume represented about 40% of prewar oil export flows and helped keep global crude below $100 a barrel as China drew on domestic reserves and reduced imports. The United States escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the strait, although gasoline prices remained elevated and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since 1983. Iran faces deeper economic pressure, including 66% annual inflation in the year through July, a falling rial, gasoline shortages, difficulty selling oil, depleted weapons stocks and a reported 25%-35% trade decline. President Donald Trump has said he prefers the current U.S. position and is not seeking negotiations, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would immediately reciprocate if Washington returned to its commitments under a June memorandum of understanding. Market pricing described by The Wall Street Journal reflected lower expectations for normalized Hormuz traffic and a U.S.-Iran agreement by September 15, alongside higher odds of regime change before the end of 2026; those expectations remain uncertain and could change after diplomacy or further escalation.