Iran’s effort to pressure global oil markets by restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be losing force as U.S. support helps Gulf producers keep crude moving. A U.S. naval blockade has prevented Iran from shipping oil from the Persian Gulf since July, while about 5 million barrels a day, almost none Iranian, crossed the strait during the latest 28-day period, according to TankerTrackers.com. Another 2.5 million barrels a day moved through Gulf of Oman ports, including Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, with combined volumes exceeding 40% of the region’s prewar oil flows. Global crude prices have remained below $100 a barrel, partly as China draws on domestic reserves and cuts imports. The blockade has not forced Iran to reopen the waterway or change its broader behavior, while economic pressure intensifies. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s trade has declined between 25% and 35% as the rial falls, inflation rises and gasoline shortages spread. Market pricing now reflects lower expectations for normalized Hormuz traffic and a U.S.-Iran agreement by September 15, while odds of regime change before the end of 2026 have increased. A diplomatic breakthrough could reverse those expectations, whereas military escalation or failed negotiations could reinforce them.