Bank of Korea study links direct stablecoin pairs to local-currency depreciation

  • Bank of Korea researchers linked direct fiat-stablecoin pairs with local-currency depreciation.
  • Binance pair listings reduced local stablecoin premiums by roughly 0.33 percentage points.
  • Korea’s crypto-demand shock raised premiums 0.85 points without significantly moving the won.

Direct fiat-to-stablecoin trading pairs can transmit demand for dollar-pegged tokens into foreign-exchange markets and pressure local currencies, according to a Bank of Korea issue note released Sept. 3, 2026. Kim Jihyun and Cho Sangheum of the central bank’s International Finance Research Team studied Binance pair introductions involving 12 currencies with sufficient cross-exchange data between 2019 and 2025, while tracking 30 currencies in related market comparisons. After direct pairs were listed, local stablecoin premiums fell by roughly 0.33 percentage points, and net buyer-initiated order flow was associated with depreciation of the paired currency. The mechanism is strongest when a global market maker can serve as a direct counterparty in both the stablecoin and foreign-exchange markets, selling local currency for dollars to rebalance exposure. Across the 30 currencies, the median dollar-stablecoin premium was about 0.8%, and Binance held roughly 69% of USDT and USDC balances deposited across exchanges. Korea showed the opposite pattern because no direct Binance won-stablecoin pair was available: a crypto-demand shock increased the local premium by about 0.85 percentage points without a statistically significant effect on the won-dollar exchange rate. In Brazil, the same shock raised the premium by about 0.11 percentage points and depreciated the real by about 0.12%. The findings do not establish that stablecoin demand always causes currency depreciation; the effect depends on market access, liquidity and direct pair availability. The research comes as South Korea weighs stablecoin rules, broader corporate and foreign participation, and foreign-exchange reforms.

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