The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year yield reached 5.31% in August, its highest since June 2007. Economist Robin Brooks said yields were rising despite U.S. data generally undershooting expectations, indicating that investors were focusing on the trajectory of the fiscal deficit and national debt above $40 trillion. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report showed 162,000 additions versus 65,000 expected and increased market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month to 50% on Polymarket, 73% on Kalshi before 2027 and 59% on CME FedWatch. Treasury-focused ETFs also recorded one of their deepest weekly outflows relative to net asset value since 2005. The U.S. Treasury plans at least $16.5 billion of debt buybacks next week and at least $38.25 billion in September, potentially providing a liquidity counterweight. Fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, corporate borrowing, geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices continue to pressure long-term yields. Markets are focused on Friday's inflation report, while HSBC raised its end-2026 10-year yield forecast to 4.65% from 4.30%.