Turkey raises 2026 inflation forecast to 28.4% in medium-term program

  • Turkey raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 28.4%.
  • 28.4% exceeds the previous medium-term program’s 16% projection.
  • Inflation is forecast to fall to 9% by 2029.

Turkey raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 to 28.4% under its medium-term economic program, up from the previous projection of 16%. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said inflation should begin declining again in the fourth quarter of 2026, then fall to 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029. He attributed about seven percentage points of the revised outlook to the direct and indirect effects of the war in the Middle East, citing the central bank. Annual inflation eased to 31.51% in August from 31.75% in July but has remained above 30% since December 2021, after peaking at 75.5% in May 2024. The program also targets GDP growth of 5% in 2029, a decline in the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio to 2.8% and unemployment of 7.6% by that year.

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