New Jersey asks Supreme Court to weigh prediction-market regulation

  • New Jersey asks the Supreme Court to decide who regulates Kalshi’s sports contracts.
  • The 3rd and 9th Circuits issued conflicting rulings on state authority over Kalshi.
  • Forty-four state attorneys general opposed CFTC control over prediction-market sports bets.

New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve whether sports contracts offered by prediction markets are state-regulated gambling or federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s jurisdiction. The petition follows a 2-1 ruling by the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocking New Jersey from applying its sports-gambling laws to Kalshi, while the 9th Circuit recently ruled that Nevada could regulate the platform’s sports contracts. The emerging appellate split raises the chances of Supreme Court review, although legal observers say the justices may wait for more lower-court litigation and evidence of the markets’ social impact. The dispute has drawn bipartisan opposition from states, with 44 attorneys general arguing that the CFTC lacks authority over sports bets, while the Trump administration, Kalshi and Polymarket favor federal oversight. The Supreme Court is due to consider New Jersey’s request at a closed-door conference after its new term begins. The broader fight also includes questions about state licensing and gambling-tax revenue, as well as whether platforms can adequately police insider trading and conflicts of interest.

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