OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra lifts Polymarket odds of formal AGI declaration

  • OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra to select organizations before a gradual ChatGPT rollout.
  • Polymarket priced a formal OpenAI AGI declaration by Dec. 31 at 28%.
  • Greg Brockman said OpenAI is moving into the AGI era.

A Polygon-based Polymarket contract put the chance of OpenAI formally declaring artificial general intelligence by Dec. 31 at 28%, up from 19% a day earlier and 18 percentage points over the past month. The increase followed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's assertion that AGI has arrived with OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, which he said was trained on Nvidia processors. OpenAI President Greg Brockman shared Huang's post and said the company is moving into the AGI era. OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra to a select group of organizations and plans a gradual rollout to ChatGPT users. The company said the model is intended for demanding professional work, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it the best model for computer use and said it could support entrepreneurship, scientific discovery and building. AGI is commonly described as AI with broad human-level abilities to learn, reason and apply knowledge, and remains a theoretical goal under conventional definitions. Huang has previously argued that AI already qualifies as AGI when it produces economically valuable output, rather than when it meets broad human-cognition benchmarks. Nvidia is developing a workforce model involving more than 400,000 AI agents and roughly 40,000 employees, alongside plans discussed for more than 1.5 million GPUs in a generation of AI factories.

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