Mark Yusko sees Bitcoin cycle bottom around Oct. 5

  • Mark Yusko projected Bitcoin's cycle bottom for Oct. 5, 364 days after its previous peak.
  • $105,000 is Yusko's fair-value estimate; he sees possible downside toward $60,000.
  • Yusko said he sold 90% of Solana after an approximately 1,000-fold return.

Mark Yusko, founder and chief investment officer of crypto-focused asset manager Morgan Creek Capital Management, said in a Crypto Banter interview released on Sept. 6 that Bitcoin had not escaped its danger zone and projected this cycle's bottom for Oct. 5, 364 days after the previous peak. He estimated Bitcoin's fair value at about $105,000 using Metcalfe's law, network user counts and transaction volumes, while allowing for a decline toward $60,000. Yusko estimated electricity costs for Bitcoin mining at roughly $58,000 and said a move below that level was unlikely. Bitcoin was trading around $79,650 at the time, little changed over 24 hours. Yusko said about 50% of his portfolio consisted of Bitcoin and related assets, 45% of venture capital investments and 10% of cash and short-term assets, with the allocation having grown through asset appreciation rather than deliberate initial positioning. He recommended that ordinary investors hold about 5% to 10% in Bitcoin, while arguing that investors under 35 should favor risk assets over bonds. Yusko also said he had sold 90% of his Solana holdings after an approximately 1,000-fold return, a claim that was not independently verified. He said the sale followed Multicoin Capital's announcement of a $2.5 million afterparty, but framed his broader concerns about Solana, Ethereum and Uniswap governance tokens as structural because holders do not claim network fee revenue, equity, debt or cash flows. Solana was trading around $105 and up more than 3% over 24 hours.

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