A third-quarter fuel oil shortage is forecast as wars affecting the Middle East and Russia disrupt supplies and refiners direct crude toward higher-margin diesel, gasoline and jet fuel rather than shipping fuel. Energy Aspects estimates a deficit of 218,000 barrels per day, its first projected shortfall since a marginal 6,000-bpd deficit in the third quarter of 2025. Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45% year on year to an average of 447,000 bpd between March and August, while Russian fuel oil exports reached a record low of 591,000 bpd in August after Ukrainian attacks affected refinery output. The US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 20% of global oil and gas flows before the conflict, while Houthi attacks near the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb have constrained shipping routes. Singapore, the largest bunker hub, imports more than half of its nearly 1 million bpd of fuel oil consumption. Its very low sulphur fuel oil price has risen 76% since the Iran war began to just under $825 a metric ton as of September 1. Higher marine-fuel costs could raise freight rates and add pressure to globally connected supply chains.