KDI says consumption recovery constrained as real wage growth stays near 0%

  • KDI said AI-linked growth had not sufficiently spread to household incomes.
  • Exports rose 68.7% in August, while facility investment increased 24.9% in July.
  • Real wages rose 0.3% in the first half, limiting the consumption recovery.

South Korea’s economy continued to improve around artificial intelligence-related investment, but the Korea Development Institute (KDI) said the recovery was not spreading sufficiently to household incomes. In its September issue of Monthly Economic Trends, released on the 7th, KDI said exports and facility investment remained strong, led by semiconductors, while negligible real wage growth continued to restrain consumption. Real wages for all workers rose 0.3% in the first half of the year. Retail sales fell 0.8% in July from a year earlier, and average growth in June and July was 1.5%, below the first-quarter pace of 3.2%. Services output growth also slowed to 3.5% in July from 5.4% in June. By contrast, exports rose 68.7% in August, with average daily semiconductor exports up 216.1% and computer exports up 431.2%, while facility investment increased 24.9% in July. Employment growth improved, but the seasonally adjusted employment rate for people in their 20s was unchanged at 59.1% and their unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points. Consumer prices rose 3.1% in August, while underlying inflation remained above the 2% target after adjusting for a telecommunications-related base effect. KDI said uncertainty linked to Middle East instability and U.S. trade policy remained high.

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