Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after Iran threatened to retaliate against new U.S. attacks, with Kpler counting seven commodity vessels on Monday versus eight the previous day. The strait remains formally open and under U.S. Navy control, according to a senior U.S. official quoted by Al Jazeera, but commercial traffic and oil flows remain well below prewar levels. Gulf crude exports recovered to 7.5 million barrels per day, while Argus reported about 11 million bpd from broader Middle East producers versus 18 million bpd before the war. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will continue into next year. Alternative routes, ship-to-ship transfers, higher non-OPEC output and weaker demand are partly offsetting the disruption, while physical-market premiums remain elevated. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb rose to 29 commodity vessels from 17, although vessels with transponders turned off may be excluded from both counts.