Goldman Sachs warned on September 7 that Brent crude could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on ships and shipping disruptions in the Middle East worsen. Brent was trading near $97, but could fall to $80 if regional exports return to normal. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent events show that disruptions could widen and intensify as U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. The bank recommends long positions in global natural gas and refined products, including diesel, to hedge geopolitical risk because those markets are facing larger supply shocks than crude. China is expected to moderate the oil market by reducing imports when prices are high, but it has not played the same role in natural gas and refined products.