Japan wages rise 4.7% in July, fastest pace since 1997

  • Japan’s nominal cash earnings rose 4.7% year-on-year to ¥436,401 in July.
  • Real wages rose 2.4%, the largest gain since May 2021.
  • Household spending fell for an eighth consecutive month in July.

Japan’s nominal cash earnings rose 4.7% year-on-year to ¥436,401 in July, the fastest pace since January 1997 and above economists’ 3.8% forecast. The increase followed a revised 4.0% gain in June and marked a sixth consecutive month in which wage growth exceeded 3%, a streak not seen in 34 years. Real wages rose 2.4%, their largest increase since May 2021, extending gains to a seventh month as base pay climbed 4.1% and bonuses increased 6.3%. The figures strengthen market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month after Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers would discuss increases at upcoming meetings, including September, while assessing inflation risks. Strong Shunto wage settlements, a higher minimum wage, healthy corporate profits and persistent labor shortages have broadened pay gains. Still, household spending fell for an eighth straight month in July and private consumption was nearly flat in the second quarter, raising doubts over whether higher incomes will translate into sustained domestic demand. The inflation gauge used to calculate real wages rose to 2.2%, while nearly 5,000 food and beverage products were due for price increases in September.

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