Arbitrum’s ARB token fell 13.91% over 24 hours to $0.168117 as of 07:51 UTC on September 7, 2026, reversing part of a 51.69% surge the previous day that briefly lifted it above $0.20. The rally, which carried ARB from $0.13 to an intraday high of $0.21, was attributed to a short squeeze rather than fundamental repricing. Reported 24-hour volume was about $510 million, but Coincu-cited on-chain data flagged 95.8% of transfer volume as wash trading involving 713 wallets, leaving a much smaller base of organic demand. Open interest fell 29.17%, or more than $12 million in notional exposure, as short positions were liquidated. Exchange flows still showed a net outflow of 174,967 ARB on September 7, with 337,213 tokens deposited and 512,180 withdrawn, and no dated official unlock or vesting event was identified. Supply remained concentrated among exchange, market-maker and accumulator wallets, while retail float represented 0.23% of classified supply. Technical indicators showed an RSI above 85 during the surge, a flat MACD histogram, and price well above the 7-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The analysis assigned a 60% probability to a retracement toward $0.15 over seven days, a 35% probability to a decline toward $0.10, and a 5% probability to continuation toward $0.26, while noting that these are scenarios rather than confirmed targets.