China’s private soybean processors are heading into a tighter fourth quarter as Brazilian supplies diminish and a 10% tariff keeps most U.S. cargoes uneconomic. The world’s largest oilseed-processing industry is already dealing with negative margins and weaker feed demand as China’s pig herd shrinks. Processors hope President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington this month could lead Beijing to reduce the tariff on U.S. agricultural goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the two countries would make "some announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers" during the summit, without giving details. State-owned Chinese traders bought about 11 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans after Xi’s May meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, but private crushers have largely stayed away from North American supplies. Benchmark U.S. soybean futures have risen nearly 12% from their June lows, while Brazilian November cargoes were offered at a $3.15 to $3.20 per bushel premium to the Chicago Board of Trade November contract, delivered to China. U.S. Gulf cargoes were offered at $3.20 to $3.25 per bushel before tariffs. Even without the additional 10% duty, October-to-December imports from Brazil and the U.S. showed theoretical crush margins—processing profits or losses—of 150 to 230 yuan ($22.35 to $34.27) per ton in the red. China had booked 4.8 million tons for November, about 60% of projected demand, while December and January purchases had barely started. Brazil’s farmers had sold 82% of the 2025/26 crop by the end of July, and shipments to China were down 2.6 million tons year on year through Aug. 25. Argentina supplied 7.9 million tons to China in 2025, but that support is expected to weaken in 2026 without similar policy incentives.