Yen Hits Six-Month High as Carry-Trade Unwinding Deepens

  • The yen reached 152.89 per dollar before dollar-yen recovered to 153.80 in Tokyo trading.
  • Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996, while Jefferies estimated yen borrowing at ¥360 trillion.
  • Bitcoin traded near $77,000-$79,000 as investors awaited BOJ and U.S. policy signals.

The yen rose to 152.89 per dollar, its strongest level since February and near its strongest level of 2026, as investors cut short-yen positions and reassessed the viability of the yen carry trade ahead of an expected Bank of Japan rate increase. Dollar-yen later recovered to 153.80 in Tokyo trading after bargain-hunting and a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.804% supported the dollar. Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996, increasing domestic borrowing costs and reinforcing concerns over the unwinding of leveraged yen-funded trades. Jefferies estimated cross-border yen borrowing, a proxy for carry-trade activity, reached a record ¥360 trillion in March. Tokyo Tanshi data showed a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point BOJ rate increase to 1.25%, compared with 52% a month earlier. Bitcoin traded near $77,000-$79,000 as the stronger yen added to volatility in risk assets, while EUR/USD remained pressured by higher U.S. long-term yields.

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