Polymarket prediction-market (event contracts reflecting outcome probabilities) odds that Apple’s first U.S. foldable iPhone will start above $2,300 have fallen to 15%, down 35% in a week, based on monitoring by PPP. The probability of a starting price above $2,200 is 42%, down 17% over the same period. Under the contract rules, any foldable smartphone released by Apple counts as a foldable iPhone even if Apple does not use that name. If Apple releases multiple models, the market uses the lowest announced starting price. The contract resolves as no if Apple has not disclosed a U.S. foldable iPhone price by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 30, 2026. Apple has announced that its 2026 autumn product launch will begin at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Sept. 10 under the theme "Surprise and shine." Separately, leaked backend pricing from Vodafone in Australia and Egypt showed an iPhone Ultra with 256GB, 512GB and 1TB storage options, with the Australian version starting at A$3,699. Industry estimates based on the leak put the U.S. Ultra’s starting price near $2,000.