Polymarket LAPTOP FDV odds above $100 million fall to 77%

  • Hunter Biden joined LAPTOP's founding team for a planned Sept. 9 Base launch.
  • LAPTOP will issue 1 billion tokens, with 30% allocated to founders including Biden.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported Biden confirmed the $LAPTOP ticker on Sept. 7.

Polymarket traders assigned a 77% probability that Hunter Biden's planned LAPTOP memecoin will exceed a fully diluted valuation of $100 million one day after launch, according to PPP monitoring, compared with 80% in an earlier record. The probability of exceeding $50 million was 87%, while earlier pricing placed the chances of clearing $10 million, $25 million, $250 million, $500 million and $1 billion at 95%, 93%, 50%, 27% and 9%, respectively. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 7, 2026, that Biden is part of LAPTOP's founding team, not merely an endorser, and that he confirmed the $LAPTOP ticker hours later with a video referring to the laptop controversy. The project plans to begin trading on Coinbase-developed Base on Sept. 9 with a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens. Its MiCA whitepaper names Phoenix Veritas Ventures Ltd as issuer and describes LAPTOP as a digital collectible without utility, governance, ownership, profit or legal rights. The Journal reported that founders including Biden will receive 30% of supply, subject to a six-month lockup and full vesting after two years. Another 30% is linked to 30 preset events, with tokens burned when conditions are met and diverted proportionately to charity when they are not. The remaining allocation comprises 20% for airdrops and 20% for charity, liquidity and foundation expenses. Project disclosures separately divide the latter category into 10% liquidity, 5% foundation treasury and 5% charity, and describe two 10% airdrop tranches. One airdrop is intended in part for wallets that lost money on U.S. President Donald Trump's TRUMP token, while other eligible groups include Hunter Biden's Substack subscribers and a mailing list curated by Andrew Callaghan. Callaghan said neither he nor Channel 5 was involved. Traders were also warned about unaffiliated LAPTOP copycats that appeared on multiple networks after Biden's announcement. The founder lockup's expiry in March 2027 is a key scheduled supply event.

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