UBS names three preferred investments as September Fed decision nears

  • UBS identified equities, longer-term bonds and gold as preferred investment areas ahead of the September Federal Reserve decision.
  • August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 versus a 55,000 consensus forecast, while unemployment held at 4.1% and September hike odds reached 60.4%.
  • The FOMC meets September 15-16 after holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with August core CPI due September 11.

UBS recommends equities, the medium-to-long part of the yield curve and gold as markets reassess the Federal Reserve's September decision following August nonfarm payroll growth of 162,000 and unemployment of 4.1%. The payroll gain exceeded forecasts variously reported as 55,000 and 56,000. UBS continues to favor artificial intelligence, power, resources and longevity within equities, sees higher longer-term yields improving entry points for income and diversification, and views gold as a portfolio hedge rather than a tactical bet on the next Fed move. The bank withdrew its recommendation to lock in short- to medium-duration bond yields as a cash alternative and advised clients to reduce excess dollar holdings. CME FedWatch put September rate-hike odds at 60.4%, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting and August core CPI data due September 11. Separately, ISM data showed manufacturing expanded for an eighth consecutive month in August, although its PMI eased to 54.6% from 55.6% and prices remained elevated at 71.1%. House Speaker Mike Johnson cited jobs, tax provisions and manufacturing in Labor Day messaging, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described factory-related construction and investment as evidence of a manufacturing revival. Economist Robin Brooks and investor Peter Schiff said rising Treasury yields reflected concerns about U.S. fiscal conditions rather than economic strength alone.

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