Chicago wheat futures have climbed roughly 14%-15% over the past month to around $7.35 per bushel, despite remaining below the three-year highs of $7.60-$7.67 reached in late August. Some measures still show wheat more than 40% higher than a year earlier. Russia and Ukraine together supply between 27% and 32% of global wheat trade, but reciprocal strikes on port infrastructure and attacks on vessels have cut Black Sea grain shipments by more than 40% from a year ago. Russian exports through the affected routes, which usually handle about 70% of the country's shipments, face severe constraints, with September projections at their lowest level since 2010. Ukrainian export forecasts have also been reduced sharply, including 2026-27 projections that indicate potential shortfalls of millions of tons. Drought across the Northern Hemisphere has added pressure, helping push global wheat prices nearly 25% higher since January 2026. Prices eased slightly in early September after diplomatic discussions raised hopes for a peace accord, but analysts caution that a ceasefire would not quickly restore pre-war trade. Ports require rebuilding, insurance markets need to be reassured and shipping lanes require demining. Futures have gained roughly 30% since early July. The disruption is especially significant for North Africa and the Middle East, while Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, is seeking more diverse suppliers. Supply constraints affecting Russia and Ukraine are expected to continue through at least the latter part of 2026.