Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate increase in September shifted after Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inaugural Jackson Hole speech, which described inflation concerns as heightened and potentially more concerning. CME FedWatch showed nearly 56% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, compared with 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, while pricing for a Pause–Cut–Pause sequence declined. The figures have varied, including 60.4% hike odds in CME FedWatch data dated Sept. 9, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting and the broader July-to-October decision period. Inflation and employment data, further Fed comments and changes to the FOMC Dot Plot remain key signals. Short-term Treasury yields rose after the speech, but available reporting does not establish a corresponding move in Bitcoin or other crypto markets.