Diesel markets face prolonged supply tightness as refinery outages and export restrictions in Russia and the Middle East compound low inventories and limited refining capacity. U.S. diesel prices reached record highs in early September 2026, while distillate stocks were reported at their lowest seasonal level since 1996 and 14% below the five-year average in late August. Existing disruptions have included reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Russia's diesel-export ban during refinery repairs. Refineries operated at 98% of capacity in the week ended August 28, leaving little room to expand output as agricultural and winter-heating demand approaches. The squeeze is expected to keep transportation and shipping costs elevated, potentially feeding into prices for goods and services while reducing fuel consumption. Market pricing is also fueling speculation about crude oil reaching new highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC and the International Energy Agency are among the key institutions to watch for changes in production, policy and supply-demand forecasts, while Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and refinery-output changes could alter expectations in the coming weeks.