Bitcoin volatility stays subdued as price remains boxed into the $78,000-$81,000 range

  • Bitcoin remained within the $78,000-$81,000 range after trading below its September 3 high of $82,283.
  • About $40.8 billion in options positions were concentrated across the $78,000-$81,000 range.
  • Long-term-holder estimates ranged from about 74% to 83% of supply, while a recent golden cross improved the technical outlook.

Bitcoin traded around $78,000 after closing at $79,092 on September 7, remaining below its September 3 intraday high of $82,283 and within a broader $78,000-$81,000 range. Glassnode linked historically low one-month realized volatility to reduced liquid supply as long-term holders retained a large share of circulating Bitcoin, although the estimates differ: earlier data put the figure at about 83%, while newer coverage cited about 74%. Coins held for more than 155 days are generally less available for trading, limiting day-to-day price swings. About 71% of circulating Bitcoin supply remained in profit, near the 74.7% historical average associated with previous bear-to-bull transitions. That benchmark is a comparison point rather than a timing signal, and profitable supply can increase the pool of holders willing to sell near recent highs. About $40.8 billion in options positions were concentrated between $78,000 and $81,000, potentially encouraging market makers to keep prices within the range. Futures leverage and liquidations could still generate sharper moves despite subdued spot volatility. Bitfinex described the market as undergoing upward consolidation, supported by ETF inflows and stablecoin growth. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received $3.8 billion during the three weeks through September 4, including $731 million on September 3. Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day moving averages recently formed a golden cross, but a sustained daily close above $82,283, within the broader $81,000-$83,000 resistance zone, is needed to confirm renewed upside momentum. Traders were also watching August CPI data, a September 15 Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision.

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