South Korea’s $200 billion U.S. investment plan tested by won’s rapid rise

  • South Korea’s planned $200 billion U.S. investment program includes the $22.3 billion Encinal gas project and annual remittances capped at $20 billion.
  • The won-dollar rate closed at 1,337.1 won on September 9 after falling more than 220 won from its July 1 peak of 1,559.2 won.
  • Record semiconductor exports, a $240.1 billion first-half current-account surplus and exporter hedging have strengthened the won, while forecasts remain split between 1,200 and 1,400 won.

South Korea’s planned $200 billion strategic investment program in the United States is being weighed against a rapid appreciation in the won, driven by semiconductor-related dollar conversions, a current-account surplus and exporter hedging. The won-dollar rate closed at 1,337.1 won on September 9, down 9.5 won from the previous session and more than 220 won below its 1,559.2-won intraday peak on July 1. The investment package includes the $22.3 billion Encinal gas combined-cycle power plant project in Texas and annual remittances capped at $20 billion, but payments are expected to be spread over several years through capital calls rather than create immediate spot-dollar demand. Analysts are divided between further appreciation toward the 1,200-won range and a rebound toward the low 1,400-won range as conversion demand fades, U.S. investment accelerates and potential Federal Reserve rate increases support the dollar.

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