Eight weeks before the U.S. midterm elections, record diesel prices are straining support among farmers, truck drivers and fishing workers who form part of President Donald Trump's base. The national average reached $5.90 a gallon on September 7, while gasoline averaged $4.15, also a Labor Day record. Democrats lead in North Carolina, Maine and Ohio, three states with Republican-held Senate seats, while prediction markets still give Republicans a narrow advantage in retaining the chamber. The House is widely expected to flip to Democrats. Voter enthusiasm, concern over the cost of living, tariff retaliation from Canada and divisions within both parties are adding uncertainty. Wall Street is treating the election as a major risk for the AI semiconductor rally: Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett says a Democratic takeover of both chambers could drive equities down more than 10%, while a Republican Senate and Democratic House could create a market-friendly gridlock outcome. Texas is especially important because of its role in AI data-center expansion and the state's review of projects seeking grid connections.