UBS upgrades Lockheed Martin to Buy, sets $674 target for 26% upside

  • UBS upgraded Lockheed Martin to Buy and raised its price target to $674.
  • $35.7 billion is UBS's 2030 revenue forecast for Missiles and Fire Control.
  • Lockheed Martin closed at $524.48 on September 4 before the upgrade.

UBS upgraded Lockheed Martin to Buy from Neutral and raised its 12-month price target to $674 from $581. The target implies roughly 26% upside from the Sept. 4 closing price of $524.48, while shares rose 2.5% in late-morning trading Tuesday. The bank expects stronger and more durable earnings growth from missile production, F-35 sustainment and the replenishment of depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles. UBS projects Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control segment will grow from $14.5 billion in revenue in 2025 to $35.7 billion in 2030, a compound annual growth rate above 20%, supported by PAC-3, THAAD, PrSM and JASSM/LRASM production. Multiyear awards, including a $35 billion THAAD contract and a nearly $60 billion PAC-3 framework agreement, are providing visibility, while the latest book-to-bill ratio reached 3.2 times. F-35 aircraft production is expected to remain broadly stable, but sustainment revenue is forecast to rise from $5.1 billion in 2025 to $8.8 billion in 2030. UBS also cited CH-53K helicopters and Trident missiles, including proposed fiscal 2027 funding of $4.1 billion and $5.2 billion, respectively. Revenue is forecast to rise from $75.0 billion in 2025 to $96.1 billion in 2028, while adjusted earnings per share increases from $21.48 to $39.34. The upgrade comes ahead of Lockheed's next earnings report, expected in late October.

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