Bitcoin analyst Benjamin Cowen estimates a 65% chance that the cycle low is still ahead, versus 35% that it has already passed. In an interview published Friday on the Kyle Chasse YouTube channel, Cowen said the recent rally had not changed his framework. Cowen identified Bitcoin's realized price, around $53,000, as a key level if the market makes a lower low. That level was about 32% below Bitcoin's price of $78,450 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data. Bitcoin was down about 37% from its October 2025 record but had gained roughly 20% over 30 days. He said a lower low would most likely require a 10% to 20% correction in U.S. stocks, similar to the equity weakness that accompanied Bitcoin's fourth-quarter lows in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Cowen said the passage of October without a lower low would shift his odds toward the bulls. Cowen also discussed the Federal Reserve, market liquidity and Arthur Hayes's more optimistic outlook. He said central-bank balance sheets remain below their 2021 peak and that current conditions are not as loose as some investors believe. He expects an equity drawdown rather than a severe crash and said he could become bullish again going into 2027.