Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden has warned that global inflation risks are increasingly tilted upward, with refined-fuel shortages adding to pressures from Middle East conflicts, strong demand for AI-related microchips and a potentially disruptive 2026-27 El Niño pattern. The Bank estimates that higher energy prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to UK CPI inflation in the second half of 2026, including roughly 0.3 points from petrol and diesel. Refinery disruptions and restricted fuel exports have widened crack spreads even while crude remains available, prompting the ECB to say crude prices are becoming a less reliable measure of broader energy-market pressure. UK CPI inflation was 2.6% in September 2026, above the Bank’s 2% target, while wage growth has moderated and the MPC expects second-round effects to remain moderate for now.