U.S. consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations held at 3.6% in August 2026, while five-year expectations remained at 3% and three-year expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.3%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Households raised their outlook for gasoline prices, with expectations for gas prices rising to 4.6%, food to 5.3%, medical care to 9.1%, college education to 6.1% and rent to 6.6%. Labor-market concerns intensified as the mean probability of higher unemployment in a year rose to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020, although the perceived likelihood of losing a job declined and the probability of finding new work after an involuntary job loss also fell. Respondents reported weaker assessments of their current and future finances and of access to credit. The survey came ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, with the benchmark overnight rate at 3.50%-3.75% and the August Consumer Price Index due before the meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said continued progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation goal would support holding rates steady, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack continued to advocate a rate increase.