US consumers are becoming more worried about employment, debt and household costs, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, published September 8. The mean probability that US unemployment will rise over the next year increased 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020. The internet-based monthly survey covered roughly 1,300 US household heads between August 3 and August 31. Respondents reported weaker financial conditions than a year earlier and less optimism about the future. The perceived probability of finding a new job after losing a current one fell 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%, while the probability of missing a minimum debt payment within three months rose 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%. Median one-year inflation expectations held at 3.6%, three-year expectations edged down to 3.2% and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Expected gasoline-price growth rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%. Expected household income growth stayed at 3.0%, while expected spending growth climbed 0.3 percentage points to 5.2%. The survey was released weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed body that sets monetary policy, was scheduled to meet. The 2.2 percentage point gap between expected income and spending growth suggests households anticipate covering the difference through reduced savings or greater borrowing.