Serenity sees ESMT mirroring SanDisk as SLC NAND prices forecast to rise 120%-170%

  • Serenity said ESMT could replicate SanDisk’s strong performance in coming months.
  • 120%-170% SLC NAND ASP growth is expected in the second half.
  • ESMT’s July-based net profit was estimated at $111 million against a $2.8 billion market value.

Serenity said Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (ESMT), ticker 3006, could replicate SanDisk’s strong performance in the coming months as memory-chip prices rise. The view cites DDR2 pricing of about $0.96 per chip and estimates that a threefold increase in average selling price (ASP) would add roughly $2 to the cost of each product. That increase may be modest for end products but could materially affect ESMT’s profits if higher memory prices persist. SLC NAND (single-level-cell flash memory) ASP is expected to increase 120%-170% in the second half, while NOR Flash prices are also expected to rise. Based on July performance, Serenity estimates ESMT’s monthly net profit at about $111 million against a market value of roughly $2.8 billion, leaving substantial room for a valuation rerating. Serenity compared ESMT’s position with SanDisk in its early stage, while emphasizing that the opportunity is concentrated in traditional and niche memory markets.

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