The crypto industry and banking groups are intensifying lobbying before the Senate’s Sept. 15 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, whose passage prospects have deteriorated amid unresolved ethics, money-laundering and banking concerns. Polymarket prices the bill’s passage odds at roughly 14%, while some Capitol Hill sources privately estimate 3% to 5%; an industry insider said lawmakers broadly expect it to fail but are reluctant to say so after roughly 18 months of lobbying and tens of millions of dollars in industry spending. The vote, scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. ET, is a cloture vote on whether at least 60 senators will allow debate to begin, not a final enactment vote. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty is urging undecided senators to meet ordinary U.S. crypto holders, while Stand With Crypto, the Blockchain Association and local advocates continue constituent campaigns. Supporters say the bill would define which tokens are securities or commodities, divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and reduce legal uncertainty. Critics, including Democrats and some Republicans, cite insufficient money-laundering and ethics safeguards and warn that stablecoins could compete with bank deposits and weaken lending. The Senate and House have only a narrow legislative window to resolve differences and pass the bill through both chambers, though Paradigm’s Alexander Grieve said it is premature to treat the measure as dead.