Oil’s 35% rally complicates US investors’ Iran war response

  • Brent crude climbed toward $100 a barrel as Middle East hostilities intensified.
  • 35%: Brent is up around that amount from this summer’s lows.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields approached 5%, near a level rarely sustained since 2007.

U.S. markets turned cautious as escalating Middle East hostilities lifted Brent crude toward $100 a barrel and pushed investors toward the Japanese yen. Brent is up around 35% from this summer’s lows, while the dollar fell below 153 yen as the currency reached a seven-month high ahead of an expected Bank of Japan rate increase. The 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 5%, but rising borrowing costs appear consistent with sticky inflation, strong nominal growth and elevated federal debt rather than evidence of a disorderly bond-market break. Equities declined broadly, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Dow off 1.2%. Markets also absorbed attacks in southern Saudi Arabia, new Canadian tariffs on U.S. goods and expectations for upcoming inflation, trade and Treasury-auction data.

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