Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week has risen to 62.2%, making an increase more likely than a hold in current expectations. Earlier Kalshi data put the probability of a hike at 57% for the September 2026 policy meeting, versus 43% for keeping the target range at 3.50%–3.75%. A 25-basis-point move would lift the range to 3.75%–4.00%. The figures come from prediction-market activity and rate-futures tools rather than an official Federal Reserve decision, and inflation, employment data, Federal Open Market Committee deliberations and comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh could alter expectations.