South Korea escapes $30,000 per capita GNI trap after 12 years

  • South Korea surpassed the $30,000 per capita GNI threshold after 12 years.
  • Real GNI rose 3.1% quarter on quarter in the second quarter.
  • Per capita GNI is projected to exceed $40,000 this year, ahead of schedule.

South Korea broke out of the $30,000 per capita gross national income threshold for the first time in 12 years, helped by surging semiconductor export prices and a stronger won. Real GNI, which measures national purchasing power, rose 3.1% in the second quarter from the previous quarter, more than five times the 0.6% increase in real GDP, according to the Bank of Korea on the 9th. Year on year, real GNI advanced 15.6%, its fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 1988. The improvement primarily reflected better terms of trade (the relative movement of export and import prices), as strong artificial-intelligence investment drove semiconductor export prices higher than import prices. The won's appreciation also increased national income when measured in dollars. Per capita GNI is projected to exceed $40,000 this year, about two years earlier than the threshold previously expected around 2028, and South Korea could regain its lead over Japan in international rankings. Taiwan is expected to remain harder to overtake because its per capita GNI already exceeded $40,000 last year and its real GDP is forecast to grow more than 10% this year. The figures do not necessarily indicate stronger underlying economic fundamentals. Nominal GDP rose 26.4% year on year in the second quarter, while the domestic demand deflator increased only 3.6%, one-sixteenth of the rise in the export deflator. Private consumption rose 0.4% from the previous quarter and government consumption 0.1%, while total operating surplus jumped 18.5% and compensation of employees increased 1.9%. The gross savings rate reached 45.6%, while the gross domestic investment rate fell to 24.2%. The Bank of Korea expects corporate income gains to spread beyond semiconductors into chemicals, shipbuilding and services, potentially reaching households through interim corporate tax payments, dividends and performance bonuses in the second half. The Korea Development Institute is more cautious, noting that real wage growth was only 0.3% in the first half. The Bank of Korea forecasts 3.3% growth this year, compared with 3.2% from KDI. Analysts say the sustainability of the $40,000 era will depend on whether chip-driven income is converted into productive investment and higher household earnings, rather than being sustained only by export prices and the exchange rate.

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